PREPARE FOR WORSE EARTHQUAKE BUT DON'T PANIC -- LOREN

GENEVA, Switzerland - "There's no need to panic, but we should prepare now."

So declared Sen. Loren Legarda, chair of the Senate committee on climate change, after attending the taping of the World Debate on impending natural disasters sponsored by the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC).

During the debate, Arjun Kartoch, head of the Emergency Services Branch of the United Nations' Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, said that an earthquake with a magnitude of 7 or higher on the Richter scale will hit Metro Manila. He could not say when it would happen.

Loren told Kartoch that the occurrence of a big earthquake in Metro Manila had been discussed for the last 10 years.

"Thank God the earthquake has not happened," she said. "[But] we are prepared for that � to the limits of our capabilities and resources." Still, she added, more preparations are needed in accordance with United Nations prescriptions on disaster risk reduction.

She asserted that it would be unrealistic to relocate "hundreds of thousands or millions of people" who could be living on the fault lines.

The BBC debate was conducted on the sidelines of the four-day Second Session of the Global Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction, held here last week to assess strategies to reduce disaster losses worldwide. BBC will air the debate worldwide on July 4.

Legarda was invited to join the debate as the United Nations' regional champion for disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation in the Asia-Pacific region.

In warning of a massive earthquake to hit Metro Manila, Kartoch was quoting the Metro Manila Earthquake Impact Reduction Study (MMEIRS) in 2002-04 conducted in collaboration with the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs), Japan International Cooperation Agency (Jica) and Metro Manila Development Authority (MMDA.

Kartoch, who heads the UN office assigned to mobilize and coordinate effective humanitarian action during complex emergencies and natural disasters, said that 16,000 buildings would be destroyed and 150,000 persons would suffer injury in the projected Metro Manila earthquake.

He presented a simulated picture of the effects of the tragedy, which first came out in a 2004 study released by the Earthquakes and Megacities Initiative (EMI). Millions of residents of Metro Manila, with a total population of 12 million, would be affected.

Phivolcs Director Renato Solidum Jr. had earlier said that the Philippine government was using the earthquake strength of magnitude 7.2 from the Valley Fault System (formerly known as the Marikina Valley Fault System) "for planning purposes" in anticipation of the big quake. On July 16, 1990, a quake with a 7.8 surface-wave magnitude struck Northern Luzon, killing 1,621 people.

Legarda said it was not too late to make preparations. She said this was precisely why the UNISDR was pushing for the integration of disaster risk reduction in the national, regional and local development policies and plans of countries. Legarda, who chairs the Philippine Senate's committee on health, said "metrowide contingency planning" was required.

"Earthquakes do not kill, but unsafe structures do," she said.

Legarda said she would ask the health department to check the capacity and capability of all hospitals in the metropolis.

She said the national government, including local government units in Metro Manila, should immediately assess the structural integrity of hospitals, schools, roads, flyovers and bridges and other public infrastructure.

In addition, she raised the need for "retrofitting or improving and strengthening the structures." "We should also insure these structures, so that we do not use limited resources. We know what will happen, so let's explore transferring the risk through insurance. That's a proactive way," Legarda said.

She cited the case of Istanbul, Turkey, which was also predicted to be hit by a big quake and thus secured a $350-million grant from the World Bank. "It has not happened but they're ready. They've been talking about it for the last 50 years, but still they're proactive," Legarda said.

She said contingency planning should involve families, barangays, municipalities, provincial governments and the national administration.

In her speech to the UN-sponsored Global Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction here, Loren called for "urgent policy reforms" to deal with disaster risks.

"The predominance of risks in our societies calls for urgent policy reforms. We need new policies that build local capacity beyond disaster response capability; new policies that link disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation and mainstream them into development action and formal education," she said.

New policies are also needed "to reduce and not worsen existing vulnerabilities and risks...reducing risk as a prerequisite for development funding...ensure the resilience of development investments...that are backed by scientific studies and empirical proofs...that promote gender sensitivity and equality...that uphold fairness and equity especially for the poor and disadvantaged," Loren declared.